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DEVELOPING A TRIP PRODUCTION PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CHARACTERISTICS

Abstract

Developing of suitable travel demand forecasting models are the key elements for the development of a long-range transportation plan. This paper focuses its study on the formulation of a trip production model using multiple regression technique for the residential land use in medium sized towns of Kerala. The trip production model estimated the number of trips that will be produced from the residential land use of these medium sized towns. The Perinthalmanna, Tirur, and Ponnani towns of Kerala were selected as the study area based on certain criteria. The data on demographic and socio-economic characteristics these areas were collected through the administration of household interviews. The quantitatively and qualitatively analysis of the results were done using the correlation and multiple regression analysis. The study showed that the regression model with the independent variables such as the percentage of automobile availability, percentage of persons employed, percentage of students and percentage of pucca type of dwelling with R2 and Adjusted R2 value of 0.878 and 0.859 respectively gives a better estimate of the trips produced. The model accuracy was also tested by checking the validity of the assumptions employed in the multiple regression technique. Since most of the work related to traffic and transportation planning requires an effective framework for the analysis of the present and future travel demand pattern, a model forecasting the trip produced based on the above mentioned characteristics shall be advantageous for a speedy travel demand forecast.

Leena Samuel Panackel, Dr. Padmini A.K.

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