Research Article Open Access

Analysing Temperature Anomalies in India: Projections and Trends Using CMIP6 Models Outputs

Abstract

India, characterized by its diverse climatic and geographic conditions, lacks a comprehensive analysis of temperature anomalies across its regions. Research on localized temperature dynamics and its consequences for certain regions and socioeconomic groups is needed. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the past and projected variations in temperatures in India between 1965 to 2064 using coupled model inter comparison project phase 6 climate models. Significant warming trends are indicated by future temperature forecasts under four SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios: SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5 were found in this study. According to spatial study, the regions of northern India, especially those close to the Himalayas, likely to have large temperature anomalies, with maximum temperatures expected to exceed 4°C and mean temperatures exceeding 3.5°C under SSP 5-8.5 in the future. The central and southern regions will also experience noticeable, though smaller, temperature increases. The long-term estimates indicate that by 2064, the mean temperature anomalies will be increases roughly by 1.5°C under SSP 1-2.6, 2.0°C under SSP 2-4.5, 2.5°C under SSP 3-7.0, and over 3.0°C under SSP 5-8.5 in this study. Under SSP 1-2.6, maximum temperature anomalies are expected to rise by about 1.7°C, by 2.2°C under SSP 2- 4.5, by 2.6°C under SSP 3-7.0, and nearly 3.0°C under SSP 5-8.5. Minimum temperature anomalies are projected to increase by 1.5°C under SSP 1-2.6, by 2.0°C under SSP 2-4.5, by 2.5°C under SSP 3-7.0, and almost 3.5°C under SSP 5-8.5.

Suraj Tiwari*

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